CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-11-22T08:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-11-22T08:00ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/22427/-1
CME Note: Halo CME seen first in the SE of SOHO LASCO C2 and then in the SSW in STEREO A COR2 and is likely associated with the C7.0-class flare from AR3151 peaking around 2022-11-22T07:27Z. The flare and subsequent eruption was accompanied by an EUV wave which was mostly directed toward the south and east as seen in SDO AIA 193 and 171 imagery starting around 2022-11-22T07:09Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-11-27T18:00Z (-18.0h, +6.0h)
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2022 Nov 23 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached low levels. Region 3147 (S12W10, Cao/Beta) was relatively stable and quiet. Region 3148 (S33, L=178) decayed to plage. Region 3149 (N21W04, Dsi/Beta) underwent decay in its intermediate spots. Region 3151 (S19E05, Cri/Beta) was responsible for multiple C-class flares to include a C7 at 22/0724 UTC, the largest of the period. The aforementioned C7 flare was responsible for a southerly CME, which was first observed in SOHO-NASA C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately 22/0800 UTC. Initial modeling indicates that the bulk of the ejecta will pass south of Earth, but some glancing influence is possible early on 27 Nov. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Parameters used for run: Time at 21.5Rs (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) : 2022-11-22 22:16 CME axis latitude (degrees) : -25.0000 CME axis longitude (degrees) : -13.0000 half angle (degrees) : 33.5000 Radial velocity (km/s) : 247.045Lead Time: 113.50 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2022-11-23T00:30Z
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